Thread: Weds Weather.....

***update***

*** alert ***
new model data coming in.. Snow amounts increasing over western / central va up to southern md / del..

no joke folks..

the fact of the matter is that every model over the past 18 hours has continue to increase the amount of moisture that gets driven into central north carolina central virginia and the southern portions of maryland and lower delaware. This trend continues on the latest data then from the short range models.

Fighting against that however is the super dry air which is covering much of central virginia and the delmarva. These short range models continue to insist that the air will saturate and that there will be increased snow amounts but i understand the skepticism from some tv meteorologists who see all this dry air around.

This first image is from the 12z rap model. This model is only goes out to 18 hours and is run every hour to show significant and or rapid changes on a very small level so the forecasters during actual weather events such as a snow storm or thunderstorm or heavy rain are not caught by surprise. Recall jnuary 21 busted snowfall forecast in central virginia. The snow did not materialize as forecasted over central and south central virginia as many of you recall. The rap accurately forecasted this huge break down and the snow shield over lynchburg richmond denville farmville charlottesville.

In this instance the new 12z rap has significantly increases snow amounts over all of central virginia including the richmond metro area. The image explains much... We also see a significant increase in the amount of available moisture for the raleigh durham area in nc. But these amounts are just to 1:00 am wednesday morning. The snow is going to continue in many areas past 1:00 am so final amounts could be higher.

This next image is the 12z nam and it two files the trend of showing more moisture driving deeper into the western portions of north carolina virginia and north central virginia. The light green area represents 0.10-0.25" which could be anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow even up towards washington, dc charlottesville and lynchburg.

The darker green area 0.25 to 0.50" is 2-4 or 3-6" and as you can see it now totally encompasses all of the richmond metro area even the western areas such a short pump ashland and amelia . Notice the dark green now stretches into southern delaware in the far southern tip of new jersey! The dark blue is 0.50 to 0.75" which at 15:1 snow ratio is 6-10" of snow and it reaches very close of the richmond metro area-- into prince george and west point which is only 30 miles away. The dark blue area also reaches all of the raleigh metro area .for southeastern virginia and for northeastern north carolina the forecast is unchanged.

In summary i understand why given all the cold dry air over central virginia there is skepticism about whether not we are going to see this much of a significant increase in snow. But that is what the model data is trending very clearly and very strong.