Thread: Weds Weather.....

We are finally getting some better model agreement here at midday with the shift of the 12Z NAM to a wetter scenario with more snow into central and southeastern portions of Virginia and Central North Carolina. This shift is significant because the European model was the one model which had NO snow into any portion of eastern or Central Virginia and over Central North Carolina. So the fact that it has shifted towards the GFS and GEFS as has thre 12z NAM it is somewhat encouraging.

In addition the shift of the midday or 12Z European models also significant especially given the fact that last several runs of had almost no snow tall and any portion of Southeast Virginia. As I stated before the snow maps all based upon a 10 to 1 ratio . In other words if you have 1/2 inch of liquid that TYPICALLY produces 5 or 6 inches of snow. And if you have 1 inch that produces 10 inches of snow. But in this case the arctic air over North Carolina and Virginia is going to be so strong and so deep that it is s going to change the ratio more like 15 to 1. Thus if you get 0.75" of liquid you don't end up with 7 or 8 inches of snow ....you end up with 12 .

For Central North Carolina and interior portions of Eastern Virginia the SNOW BUST is very high . I have a band of 3 to 6" of snow over locations such as Emporia and South hill and the areas to the south and east of Richmond into the middle peninsula.... but it could be only 1 to 2 inches.

The same issue also was true for the areas in North Carolina between interstate 95 and interstate 85. I think it's pretty safe to say that areas such as Raliegh ...Chapel hill ....Durham ... Sanford is going to see a significant snowfall. But once you get close to interstate 85... from Danville down into Greensboro and then from Greensboro down to Charlotte North Carolina the BUST potential here is very high .

The reason for these very narrow bands of snowfall and a very sharp snow gradient it because all the lifting of the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico which produces snow is going to be over the eastern portions of South Carolina North Carolina and Southeast Virginia. The surface LOW is going to track well to the south and east of Cape Hatteras which means that only so much of this lifitng energy or mechanism is going be able to push into the interior portions of these three states. That combined with the severe arctic air and the the accompanying VERY low dew points sets the stage for somebody getting a a big surprise with regard to snowfall .

Over eastern North Carolina into the southern portions of Virginia Beach I have an area of 10 to 14 inches of snow but it's possible that this may be a little on the low side and I MIGHT increases this tonight or Tuesday.

Finally for those folks who are new here... Keep in mind what the forecast were saying just 24 hours ago and 48 hours ago and two was telling you that this was a threat of a significant snowstorm for the east and carolina's and Southeast Virginia 5-6 days ago.

I am right in ground zero. Goodbye gentlemen. It was nice knowing you. I will be plowed under.CF

Dig around .... see if you can find Dayton since your there.

Put down your poles for 1 day, grab your favorite sled, and head for a slippery slope. Just don't walk up the middle of the path like the mental giants at powhatan hill.

well, I am 6 miles west of 95 and 10 miles from va,so put another log in the heater,corker when I was a little younger ,when we got a snow,we would carry 2 four wheel drive and put in and still fish

Originally Posted by genec

well, I am 6 miles west of 95 and 10 miles from va,so put another log in the heater,corker when I was a little younger ,when we got a snow,we would carry 2 four wheel drive and put in and still fish

I think Gene meant to say 4 hoof drive. Here's how they used to do it when he was young, and that was a while back.

More like this.

***update***

*** alert ***
new model data coming in.. Snow amounts increasing over western / central va up to southern md / del..

no joke folks..

the fact of the matter is that every model over the past 18 hours has continue to increase the amount of moisture that gets driven into central north carolina central virginia and the southern portions of maryland and lower delaware. This trend continues on the latest data then from the short range models.

Fighting against that however is the super dry air which is covering much of central virginia and the delmarva. These short range models continue to insist that the air will saturate and that there will be increased snow amounts but i understand the skepticism from some tv meteorologists who see all this dry air around.

This first image is from the 12z rap model. This model is only goes out to 18 hours and is run every hour to show significant and or rapid changes on a very small level so the forecasters during actual weather events such as a snow storm or thunderstorm or heavy rain are not caught by surprise. Recall jnuary 21 busted snowfall forecast in central virginia. The snow did not materialize as forecasted over central and south central virginia as many of you recall. The rap accurately forecasted this huge break down and the snow shield over lynchburg richmond denville farmville charlottesville.

In this instance the new 12z rap has significantly increases snow amounts over all of central virginia including the richmond metro area. The image explains much... We also see a significant increase in the amount of available moisture for the raleigh durham area in nc. But these amounts are just to 1:00 am wednesday morning. The snow is going to continue in many areas past 1:00 am so final amounts could be higher.

This next image is the 12z nam and it two files the trend of showing more moisture driving deeper into the western portions of north carolina virginia and north central virginia. The light green area represents 0.10-0.25" which could be anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow even up towards washington, dc charlottesville and lynchburg.

The darker green area 0.25 to 0.50" is 2-4 or 3-6" and as you can see it now totally encompasses all of the richmond metro area even the western areas such a short pump ashland and amelia . Notice the dark green now stretches into southern delaware in the far southern tip of new jersey! The dark blue is 0.50 to 0.75" which at 15:1 snow ratio is 6-10" of snow and it reaches very close of the richmond metro area-- into prince george and west point which is only 30 miles away. The dark blue area also reaches all of the raleigh metro area .for southeastern virginia and for northeastern north carolina the forecast is unchanged.

In summary i understand why given all the cold dry air over central virginia there is skepticism about whether not we are going to see this much of a significant increase in snow. But that is what the model data is trending very clearly and very strong.