The later Cumberland is the smaller the weigh in will be. I know last year in late Feb. 7 fish on Cumberland would average about 10-12 lbs. Depending where you were fishing. I don't think there will be much difference in weight at green or barren no matter when they are, and Cumberland might be good into march this next year... I look for it to stay colder longer in 2014. I don't know about cave run but T.ville will most likely be a good 7-8 lb. Weight.