If you fish predominantly one lake in one geographic zone then you probably have it about figured out if you been doing very long.
But if you fish around some on streams and rivers and oxbows,and swamps,and 10 or 15 different lakes....well then ...start with something and if that don't work try the other.
It also matters on how radical the changes in climate are because fish can get funky when things change rapidly. If its real cold but stays that way for a long time then even that gets predictable and you figure something out.Or if its warm most of the time and cold fronts are short and warm weather is usually right behind is another.
The more you experience changing conditions and changing bodies of water....the more it pays to be prepared to adapt and keep an open mind.
I like it when a long consistent weather pattern settles in and water levels and clarity are constant for a while.The fish get comfortable and are much more predictable ,and I can find a pattern and just fish it with nearly the same results everytime.


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