Not saying the shad are going to become extinct. Just saying for some reason they seem to be less prolific. I can remember 4 or 5 years ago they were everywhere and it had been that way for a long time. We had a flood 3 years ago. Only thing different weather wise was 2 consecutive cold winters. Lots of lakes I have fished have shad I can only think of one that had the numbers Patoka had in the past and they are farther south. Now with the forage base changing the shad numbers seem to be too. I just wonder how many shad a big walleye can swallow in a year and there are a lots of yellow bass. If they get in these newly hatched shad schools I am thinking they could really rip them up. Yes it could just be a down cycle. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 years.