Basically though we assume it is because that fish saw that lure as food or a threat

Of course you know what they say about that those that ass-u-me.

The only reason I swap lures is for variety - not because fish stopped biting them for whatever reason/excuse one may give. The only guesses I make are in regard to possible fish holding areas in a water. In order to up the odds of finding fish - starting with baitfish locations - is to know waters fished over time. This involves discovering a multitude of facts about a lake or pond that may differ widely from one another. It includes:

knowing everything about the bottom in all parts of the lake such as depths in feet (shallows vs deep areas), flats, humps, points, steep shorelines, bottom composition, weed areas, inflow streams/ old channels, old rock walls, stumps, etc. The only way to do this is with sonar and traveling to various parts of the lake or pond, constantly making mental notes of what is found.

seasonality - fish locate in different areas depending on the season and avoid the same areas for the same reason.No guess work when it comes to choosing the right lures, used the right way - trolling generally being least productive. The areas those lures are cast are as important as the lures chosen which goes back to - knowing thy water especially when a water is a mile or more in any direction.

Having confidence in any lure simply means fish were caught on it and nothing more; losing confidence in a lure is just as uninformative. If a lure statistically proves itself - even during only one outing - the lure is now a classic in one's tackle box meaning the odds are very high it can and will catch fish when taking into consideration various fish locations.

Lure color is the least significant factor when choosing lures and I've proven many times that clear soft plastic does as well as opaque colors of any brightness. Color brightness along with flash is something I consider importanct when I want the lure to stand out and to emphasize a lures action as a whole or just the tail.

The whole point of using lures is discovering what each is capable of when it is used in one or different ways and in different situations. Statistics speak loudest when assessing the value of a lure. In fact results over time do not and can not disprove the value of a lure that has proven itself year after year by consistently catching fish and in different waters no less.

As to what fish are supposedly feeding on at the time, lure choices never need take that into consideration. Higher activity equates to more sensitivity to moving objects, whether alive or appearing so - even regarding the unnatural way lures are prone to moving.

Find fish/catch fish may seem simplistic but when all the above are taken into consideration, it doesn't take a genius to catch fish while at the same time excluding all of the noise/claims why and what fish strike.