Junk Science Estimates for Ky Lake

Lets take a look at the survival rate for Young Of the Year crappie. These estimates may be Way Off! But lets say an average female crappie that spawns in the spring lays about 100,000 eggs and 1% of these survive. That would mean that 1000 YOY fish would be released into the lake. And lets say 10% of the YOY fish survive to 10 inches in size. That would mean about 100 mature 10" fish for every successful spawning pair of crappie.

If 1000 pairs of crappie went into the off limits section of Smith Bay and spawned, what would the result be from this. 1000 (spawning pairs)x 100,000 (eggs)x 1% (YOY survival rate) x 10% (survival rate of crappie to 10 inches)= 100,000 mature 10" crappie. Then lets also consider that this is something that would not cost the state nearly as much money as the state trying to stock 100,000 crappie into the lake.

Now this is may be junk science gone amuck. But if Smith and Duncan Bays had their Nov 1st - March 15 bay closures extended until May 1st, might it be possible to have as much as 100,000 - 500,000 mature crappie added to the lake each year? Note: (Duncan Bay's off limits area is much larger then Smith's) Would this added number of mature crappie make a significant difference in the fishing for the North section of Ky Lake? Also, no one is suggesting the major bays like Jonathan or Big Bear be closed during the spawn. Well over 90% of the lake would still be open for fishing if the proposed areas in Smith and Duncan were closed. In fact, 2/3s of Smith Bay would still be open to fishing.

Many have said rising and falling water levels during the spawn are the main factor in the Lakes crappie numbers. Well some things are out of our control. But water levels went up and down in the 50s, 60s, and 70s and Ky Lake had tremendous numbers of fish back then. What is the main difference between today and then? There are a lot of differences like the lake is much clearer these days, the black to white crappie ratio, but the main difference (in my opinion) is the amount of fishing pressure.

Give the fish a chance to spawn unmolested and we might be surprised by the results. And by the way, this experiment was done with a different species - the striped bass on the East Coast. Back in 85-89 a moratorium was placed on the Chesapeake Bay stripers. When the fishing was reopened in 1990, there were millions of striped bass from Maine to North Carolina. This was a great success story brought about by controlling the fishing pressure.

One last issue, for those who witness someone doing something illegal on the water. You should get the violators vehicle or boat number and report the violation to the KDF&W. I would not recommend confronting the violator, problems could ensue. But if you are not willing to report these violations you should not be complaining when something has not been done.

I like your numbers, that would be a very good year. I think 2% maturing to spawn is an avg and the bulls stay where they're born to spawn. The sows move around to other areas for spawning, its a built in genetics thing. No "2nd" generation pairings that way. I'm pretty sure thats what I read by Mississippi's "DNR", they're hybridizing crappie and have a lot of studies.

Hey Huck Finn,
I did a little research an I came across KDFWR (Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources - Fisheries Management) 1.6 MILLION DOLLAR fish survey and in Table 11 of there report I see in Blood River there total fish for 80 net nights of sampling yielded 534 black crappie and 138 white crappie for a total of 672. This is all sizes. I do not think you would have 1000 pairs of fish in Smith Bay. Blood River is one of the most productive bays in Ky. Lake.Also most crappie do not migrate to spawn out of there home bay.Also if you look at table 12 of KDFWR survey you will see significant increases in crappie populations especially >10" . The highest it has been in 10 years. The 0 age fish have increased in the last 3 years and >8" has increased over the last 4 years. We are only in the 2nd year of the 20 fish limit. . I agree with you we should preserve our crappie populations for the future but the way I see it we do not have a major problem right now.To limit access to a federal public waterway for everyone is not the answer. If we do anything we should up the length limit to 12" and give all the fish in the whole lake another year to spawn. Here is an article I found about the Chesapeake Bay issue. I get from this that polution was the main issue and this one Bay was the spawning bay for 70 to 90 perceent ot the total population.
Cause for Concern
The decline of Atlantic Striped Bass was so alarming that Congress enacted an Emergency Striped Bass Act in 1979. Under the Act, a study was initiated to assess the size of the migratory stock, investigate the causes of the decline, calculate its economic importance and recommend measures for restoration.

From this research, scientists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,state agencies and universities discovered new information about striped bass to assist them in restoration. Careful assessment of the stock showed that, because of overfishing, the striped bass population was much more susceptible to natural stresses and pollution. They also discovered that fluctuation of water temperature at spawning grounds is the most significant natural stress the fish face.

Research conducted in the Chesapeake's Nanticoke and Choptank rivers indicated that highly acidic rain reacts with aluminum in the soil, causing it to dissolve in the water. The combination of high acidity and aluminum is lethal to newly hatched stripers. Larval striped bass are also very susceptible to toxic pollutants like arsenic, copper, cadmium, aluminum and malathion, a commonly used pesticide. Studies showed that chlorination of effluent from sewage plants and electric power stations adversely affects zooplankton, leading to starvation of newly hatched striped bass that feed on it.

The study team also concluded that reducing fishing pressure would have an immediate positive effect by enabling females with eggs to spawn. An Atlantic States Marine Fishery Commission management plan, based partly on recommendations of this study, set size and pound limits to reduce the catch.

In 1985, Maryland imposed a total moratorium on striped bass. Virginia followed by banning striped bass fishing in spawning areas. Fours years later, Virginia also imposed a total ban on striped bass fishing. However, fishery managers knew that harvest restrictions alone would not permanently restore striped bass to the Bay.

Bringing the Striper Back
Under the Emergency Striped Bass Restoration Act, Congress designated the Fish and Wildlife Service as the lead federal agency to determine the cause of the fishery's decline. Striped bass restoration began in 1980. Water quality problems on spawning grounds were evaluated. By 1985, a coast-wide striped bass tagging and hatchery program was initiated to determine the rates of exploitation and natural mortality, and determine if hatchery-reared fish could supplement wild stocks in severely depleted rivers.

Fishery managers and biologists from the Fish and Wildlife Foundation, National Marine Fisheries Service, state agencies from Massachusetts to North Carolina and universities continue to participate in the striped bass tagging program. A central database, designed and managed by the Service, stores stocking information, migratory data from tag returns and other information upon which management decisions are based.

Since 1985, more than 190,000 hatchery-reared and wild striped bass have been tagged with external anchor or "spaghetti" tags. Anglers returned more than 30,000 of these tags by 1993. In addition, all hatchery-raised striped bass, more than 9 million fish in all, are tagged with tiny micro-encoded pieces of wire that anglers cannot see but researchers can read with specialized equipment. These hatchery-reared striped bass provide managers with information about population dynamics, growth and migratory patterns. In 1988, hatchery fish comprised nearly 50 percent of Maryland juvenile striped bass in some rivers like the Patuxent. Today, as hoped, wild fish far outnumber hatchery fish. Evaluations continue on the potential contribution of hatchery fish to depleted stocks.

During the years of the moratorium in Maryland, fishery managers continued to monitor striped bass populations in Chesapeake Bay. In particular, the juvenile index survey was closely watched. Conducted annually since 1954, this survey of the young-of-the-year reflects the success of spawning. The striped bass management plan set a goal for loosening restrictions based on this index. The juvenile indices averaged from 1987 to 1989 met the management plan goal. In 1989, both Virginia and Maryland lifted their moratoriums on striped bass. Limited commercial and recreational striped bass fishing resumed.

The Future of the Fishery
Striped bass stocks continue to gradually increase. The 1993 juvenile index was the highest since the survey first began. Besides the young-of-the-year index, managers have noted an increase in adult striped bass and in the proportion of spawning females, age 8 or older. This information is critical to establishing fishing seasons, minimum fish lengths, daily catch limits and harvest quotas.

Since Chesapeake Bay is the primary spawning and nursery area for 70-90 percent of the Atlantic stocks of striped bass, restoration depends on protecting and improving habitat and water quality. We have much to gain from restoring striped bass and Chesapeake Bay; we have much more to lose if we decline the challenge. Through harvest restrictions, pollution control, stocking and commitment we can restore the Striped Bass to Chesapeake Bay.

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Ifish, that is quite a response. Not so sure that 672 crappie is a good indication of how many fish are in the Blood River,at least I hope not!

Hey Huck Finn,
I hope you did not take my response as any kind of a personal issue. I am very concerned about restricting any waterways on Kentucky and Barkley Lakes. I do not know what bays you fish but I would say if one day you came around the corner and there was a big sign that says Do Not Enter you would be a little mad.I have worked very hard to help build up the structure in these bays and to see it taken away would suck..I just don't think closing any bay will make any difference.Paul Rister told me personally that there is no science to support this idea at all.I hope you have a great holiday season and please do not take anything I say personally. We can all do great things together!

I read some of this post about closing bays for the spawn to boost the crappie population in the lake.

I got to say the whole concept just doesn't make any sense (at least to me). I keep seeing just 2 bays mentioned Smith & Duncan. Once the crappie spawn, I just can't see the population of the young of the year going to disperse over the whole lake. I can see where the fishing in Smith & Duncan would improve (slightly)after a few years but I would think once the open date comes for those bays alot of guys would flock to those bays to fish for those unpressured fish. Just because the fish have spawned doen't mean no one is going to catch them.

I only get to Ky Lake once a year but I personally don't feel a need to keep every legal fish I catch. I see so much wrote about the out of staters catching all the fish but I often wonder though, who really is hurting the populations more? Some guy who shows up for a couple of days and has to figure out what the fish are doing or a guy who fishes the lake every week and feels a need to keep every legal fish he catches. If someone is really that worried about it lower your own personal limit. (I do) I see some guys brag on here that they keep 500 to a 1000 fish (and more) a year. Then they wonder where the fish went. It's easy, look in your freezer. It happens in Ohio (and every other state)too.

Whatever happens, I'm coming to Ky Lake in the spring as long as I'm able. It's still an awsome fishery.

I agree with Huck..when you get down to the nutcuttin the biggest deterrant on crappie size and numbers in KY/barkley lakes is fishing pressure..If you want better fish than the state needs to look at ways to tighten things up as well as take a serious look at all the netting going on..Bee